| 27 October 2010
You’ve heard it before, but I’ll say it again. We’re in the midst of the most exciting NBA season of our lifetimes. I know I’m not the first person to tell you that. Or the 100th. But I figured it was worth mentioning again anyway. With the season tipping yesterday, I spent most of the day walking around in a semi-catatonic state, almost like a kid waiting around for the bell to ring on the last day of school. I couldn’t hold down food. I was irritable. If I was a female I would’ve blamed it on cramps. But really, I just wanted the season to get going.
When it did, my buddies spent the entire Heat-Celtics game texting like teenage girls trying to make prom plans. How does Boston look good? Why does Dwyane Wade look so angry? Is “500,” Shaq’s weight, or what his field goal percentage on uncontested dunks will be at the end of the year? As much as I love my friends, I can barely get them to text me on a Friday night to make plans. To get them yapping like that on opening night of the NBA season is unheard of.
And having conversations with people, it’s just the Miami Mix Tape All-Stars who are getting everybody’s blood boiling. There are quite a few interesting teams, players, rookies and storylines to get us going.
Anyway, after talking to friends, reading a bunch of magazines, browsing the internet for the past few months and watching last night’s games, here is the AaronTorres-Sports NBA Preview, with a six-pack of my thoughts for the upcoming season.
It’s a day late, but hopefully unlike the Heat last night, won’t be a dollar short.
Enjoy
(Also, for those who might not know, Aaron Torres Sports and HP have teamed up to provide a FREE computer to one lucky reader of this site. There are no catches. Click here to sign up to enter)
1. The Cavaliers Will Make The Playoffs: The idea that Cleveland won’t be competitive is the single dumbest idea floating around this preseason, and the single biggest reason I decided to eschew a World Series column and write an NBA preview one instead.
Look, I get why there’s cause for concern. LeBron is gone, and regardless of what you think of him, he’s the single most skilled player in the league. He can make terrible players look good, and the good players look great, to the point that I honestly think if the NBA kept a stat for “Most Career Uncontested Dunks or Layups,” Anderson Varejao would’ve crushed that record about three years ago.
With that said, LeBron didn’t win 60+ games alone these last few years like a lot of people would make you think. Mo Williams was a 17 point, six assist guy in Milwaukee a few years ago, and I don’t know if you heard, LeBron wasn’t playing with him there. Antawn Jamison was a pretty good player in Washington these last few years. You know how I know that? Because the same people who are leaving him for dead now are the same ones who were praising the Cavs for picking him up last February. Well guys which is it? Is he lousy or good? Make up your mind.
Also, I firmly believe we’re going to see early this year how grossly inept Mike Brown handled the Cavaliers minutes in last year’s postseason. And “inept,” probably isn’t a strong enough word. Because to say Mike Brown was inept last spring would be like saying The Bounty Hunter with Jennifer Aniston was a “bad,” movie. There isn’t a single word in the English language to describe how terrible either was (And in case you’re wondering, yes I’m still bitter about spending nine of my hard earned dollars on The Bounty Hunter. I love Jennifer Aniston, and it was a pleasure watching her on screen for those 90 minutes. With that said, I want my money back. Like right now)
But back to Brown. I spent roughly 2,500 words ripping him to shreds in one of my columns last spring, and stand by every word I said.
I know that Shaq is one of the all-time greats, and that Zydrunas Ilgauskas is one of the all-time great Cavaliers. But neither should’ve seen the playing time they did against the Celtics last year or at all. Quite honestly, I’m not even sure security at Quicken Loans Arena should’ve even let them in the building. Especially when the one thing that Boston struggled with all series- and season for that matter- was length and athleticism, two things that were in abundance with little used players J.J. Hickson and Jamario Moon.
Now I already know what you’re thinking, “Aaron, you think that Jamario Moon and J.J. Hickson would’ve swung that series? Really? Wow, you’re dumber than I thought you were, and honestly, I already thought you were pretty dumb.” Which, I can’t lie, kinda hurts guys.
All I’ll say though, is go back and watch those games. Paul Pierce couldn’t get a shot off when Moon was guarding him. I’m not saying the guy should’ve been playing 40 minutes a game, but he needed to see the floor more than he did. And Hickson? Well there isn’t a ton to talk about with him. Considering he was buried so far down the bench that he had stains on his warm-ups. From all the dirt Brown shoveled on him, of course.
What I also know is that I was in attendance for the Cavs-Celtics game on Easter Sunday, where Hickson had 14 points and 11 rebounds, and was the second best Cavalier on the court. Watching the Celtics chase him back and forth up the court was like watching an overworked mom chase her kids on the playground. After awhile they basically gave up. And that was my problem with the Cavs playoff loss last year. It isn’t about appeasing veterans, but putting your most effective five guys on the floor. I don’t feel like Brown really ever did that.
Well now Moon and Hickson are in the starting lineup. I’m not saying that that Cleveland is going to be better than last year, or even anywhere close to as good as they were. I get that.
What it does mean though, is that the Cavs will be playing the fast-paced, up tempo game they should have last year. Instead of the one Brown chose to employ, with Shaq clogging up the middle like a gas station toilet.
Moving off Brown, maybe my biggest gripe with the Cavs, is the respect that the media is showing for the rest of the Central Division. I actually saw one magazine predicted Cleveland to finish last in the division. They’re kidding right? Did anyone actually watch the NBA regular season last year? Other than Chicago and to a smaller degree Milwaukee, the Central is a train wreck!
Simply put, Detroit has the single most flummoxing roster in the NBA. By far. It’s almost like Joe Dumars put his team together one night when he was drunk, by picking names out of a hat. I wish I was kidding.
If you haven’t seen the Pistons roster, let me give you a quick rundown. They’ve got a shoot-first point guard in Rodney Stuckey, and a center who died four years ago with Ben Wallace. Good start, huh? Those two are surrounded by roughly 87 perimeter players that all have the same set of skills. I’m talking to you Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton, Tracy McGrady, Charlie Villanueva and Tayshaun Prince. The one guy that I like the most on this roster is rookie Greg Monroe, and his skills do absolutely nothing to compliment the rest of his teammates. If this was chemistry class, Dumars would’ve gotten an F from his teacher. That is, if he didn’t blow up the lab first.
As for the rest of the division, in Indiana, Danny Granger is better in fantasy than in real life, and a shoe-in to miss 20 games with injury. Sure there’s Darren Collison, but then what?
Meanwhile, I like Milwaukee, but it seems like it’ll be tough for them to duplicate their success from last year. I even spent 25 minutes arguing about it on the phone with my buddy John the other day (Which may set the record for longest running argument about the Milwaukee Bucks between two non-Bucks fans). My point being, if Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette are so valuable, why is everyone so eager to get rid of them?
With so much dead-weight in the Eastern Conference (Toronto, Philly, Indy, Detroit), expect the Cavs to hover somewhere around 40 wins, and in the East, 40 wins will get you into the playoffs.
Could we be looking at a Cavs-Heat Round 1 matchup?
(Be sure to follow Aaron on Twitter @Aaron_Torres)
2. Speaking Of The Playoffs: I really do think this is the year where we some of the old-guard move out of the way for the up-and-comers. Especially in the Western Conference.
Now, I’ll do everyone a favor, and keep my comments on Oklahoma City to myself. Every writer/blogger/podcaster/radio host in America has touched on them, so I’ll save you from another, "The Thunder are going to be a real player in the West pick."
Still, there are some other teams that are set to emerge. Here are a few who I think could surprise.
Los Angeles Clippers: Yes, those wacky, zany Clippers.
Earlier this fall ESPN writer Bill Simmons sang the praises of Blake Griffin, and as someone who loves college basketball (and spent two years watching Griffin dominate it), I couldn’t agree more. You know how they say some guys “Have a nose for the ball?” Griffin doesn’t just have a nose for the ball, he’s like a bloodhound who picks up the scent of it, puts his head down, and doesn’t look up until the ball is in his hands.
As I mentioned before, I watch a lot of college basketball. And just like anything else, after awhile you watch enough of it you start to pick up some trends.
What I’ve realized through the years is that basically any guy who is 6’9 or 6’10 in college basketball will average seven or eight rebounds a game, simply by virtue of being the biggest guy on the floor most of the time. A good rebounder in college will average 10-11. Well in his second year at Oklahoma, Griffin averaged…wait for it…14 rebounds per game! In just 33 minutes! Folks, you don’t get 14 rebounds per game because you like to rebound. You have to love to rebound. You have to crave rebounds like a sorority girl craves a cigarette after last call. It's got to be a passion. For Griffin I think it is.
And if he stays healthy, I think Los Angeles competes for the eight seed.
Two more teams that I like:
Golden State Warriors: I’m not NBA expert, but with new ownership in place, it does seem like there's a renewed sense of optomism with the Warriors, especially with Don Nelson being fired. Now please understand, I'm not saying it's a bad thing when your coach shows up every day reeking of moth balls and Gin. Just that the players really seem to be responding to new coach Keith Smart. That's all.
Also, did you know that Monta Ellis married a Memphis police officer this summer? And that he’s admittedly got discipline for the first time in his life? I’m just saying it might be a big year for our old pal Monta.
Memphis Grizzlies: The talent is there, but can they keep Z-Bo happy for another 82 games? Plus I am a bit worried that they had a “lightning in the bottle,” kind of year in 2010, kind of like Milwaukee.
So obviously with those teams on the fringe, somebody has got to fall back. Here are a few thoughts:
San Antonio Spurs: I don’t think the Spurs will miss the playoffs entirely, but my goodness are they getting old. Which terrifies me, considering I've got Tony Parker and Tim Duncan on my fantasy team.
I still think San Antonio is in line for the No. 6 or 7 seed, but as crazy as it sounds, I think their season will come down to Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair and George Hill more than Parker, Duncan or Manu. If Gregg Popovich can’t get big minutes out of those guys, I don’t see how San Antonio keeps their veterans fresh and healthy. And if the vets aren’t fresh and healthy, they’re not advancing past the first round of the playoffs.
Phoenix Suns: I know that Amare Stoudemire has bad knees, but wouldn’t you rather pay him max money than splurge on Hedo Turkoglu, Josh Childress and Channing Frye? Just thinking out loud here.
Denver Nuggets: And of course there are the Nuggets, which brings me to my next point…
3. Carmelo Anthony Will End The 2011 Season in A Nuggets Uniform: I have no inside information on this one, but it seems simple really. The Carmelo trade talks are the “Chicken and Egg,” theory at its finest.
Think about it. Carmelo wants to be traded. We know that. But he only wants to be traded to a team he approves of (reports being the Knicks or Nets). If he is traded to his pre-approved team, Carmelo wants to sign a contract extension before a potentially new collective bargaining agreement kicks in this spring. Of course no one will trade for him without knowing that he’ll sign that extension. Carmelo’s good, but nobody is giving up draft picks, cheap young guys, and roster flexibility to rent him for six months.
At the same time, am I really to believe that some GM is going to spend countless hours- in the middle of the season, mind you- not only negotiating a trade for Carmelo, but an extension at the same time? Doesn’t seem likely to me, especially since no one knows what the new parameters of the upcoming collective bargaining agreement might be this summer. Why pay Carmelo now, when you might be able to get him down the line for less? (Assuming there’s no lockout of course).
On a different note (and this is gonna sound wacky), but is it so crazy to think that ‘Melo might actually enjoy himself in Denver this year?
I’m no Nuggets expert, but this seemed like a seemingly semi-harmonious team last year (except for the J.R. Smith-Kenyon Martin popcorn situation), at least until George Karl was diagnosed with cancer and left the club. With Karl out, Adrian Dantley came in, and everything in Denver imploded.
With Karl back, could he be the one guy to keep everyone in line?
4. The Orlando Magic WILL NOT Make Their Third Straight Eastern Conference Final: And really, I think that this roster has peaked as we currently know it. Because if there is one thing that we learned about Orlando last season, it’s that for all the regular season wins, all the early round playoff beat downs, all the Dwight Howard giggly interviews, for the Magic, when the going got tough, they got going…right out the playoffs.
And that’s my concern with this team heading into this year. Other than Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick, I didn’t see any mental toughness from them against Boston last spring. Howard seemed totally content to defer, and disinterested in taking over when his team needed him to. Rashard Lewis disappeared last postseason to the point that I expected to see his face on a milk carton. And we all know Vince Carter’s story.
More concerning is that after that Eastern Conference Finals loss, Orlando stood pat, and did nothing to get better. Meanwhile, love or hate their moves, the
Magic's top competition in the East did. Now I understand that because of salary cap limitation and roster flexibility, Orlando couldn’t completely remake this team, nor should they have. They’re a talented group, but one that needed an infusion of toughness. Couldn’t they have gotten that through the draft?
Again, I know you’re not going to get a difference maker at the end of the first round. But this team didn't need a difference maker. They needed somebody to elbow Howard every day in the ribs, to get in Carter’s face on the perimeter in practice. They just needed to get a little meaner.
So I’ve got to ask, instead of drafting Daniel Orton- by all accounts, a privileged ‘me-first,’ guy at -Kentucky last year- couldn’t they have skipped over Orton and gone with someone like Lazard Hayward from Marquette, Jarvis Varnado from Mississippi State or Sherron Collins from Kansas? Even as 12th guys on the bench, they’re going to be accountable professionals, and bust their butts every day in practice. Which is all Orlando needed.
Once again I expect the Magic to win a lot of regular season games, and beat up on the Detroit’s and Charlotte’s and Washington’s and pile up regular season wins. I also expect them to crap out when it really matters.
5. The Miami Heat WILL NOT Win The NBA Title: I know that I’m hardly the first, last or only person to question this hastily put together street ball squad in Miami. The difference is though, that unlike all the former players on TV that feel obligated to throw out dumb clichés like “Until somebody beats them, the Lakers are champs in my book,” and “Winning doesn’t just happen. The Heat have to learn how to win,” I’m not going to spew that crap on you.
Nope in my eyes, Miami is the team to beat, even with their loss last night. Talent wins in this league, and the Heat have two of the three best players in the world, and three of the best dozen. Not to mention a bunch of role players that perfectly suit their star’s skills, and will shoot threes, crash the boards, and fall in line. For all the talk about Miami's struggles last night, remember it was basically Wade's first game in the lineup, and they were playing without Mike Miller. This team is 10 percent right now, of what they will be in April.
Still, I’m not picking the Heat to win, and to explain, let me give you a bit of a historical perspective.
Over the summer I read the book When The Game Was Ours, about Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and the rivalry between their teams and themselves back in the 1980’s. Considering that I really didn’t know much about either player other than the obvious (Magic’s HIV diagnosis, The Dream Team, etc.) it really was an eye-opener.
What stood out to me in the book though, was how conscious those two were of what each other were doing, and how conscious the Lakers and Celtics were of each other as teams. How Pat Riley spent his summers sitting alone in the dark, looking for any weakness in Bird’s game. And how both the Celtics and Lakers made specific roster moves solely to beat the other. Boston specifically added Dennis Johnson because he gave Magic trouble, and the Lakers specifically added Mychal Thompson because he did the same to Bird.
Anyway, fast forward to this summer, where I thought history repeated itself. Because even though the Lakers are the champs, and the Celtics were the best in the Eastern Conference, the moves they made were specifically to beat the Heat.
For Boston, I loved the additions of Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal this offseason. Not because those two bring skill to the court. This isn’t 2001 after all.
At the same time, Boston set the standard on how to get into LeBron’s head last spring. Foul him, and foul him hard every time he goes to the basket, or even gets the ball in the open court. Say what you want, but LeBron wasn’t the same player at the end of the Celtics series that he was at the end of the regular season or against Chicago in Round 1. Even last night, it seemed like he was hesitant to attack the basket for most of the game. And even though Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal have about ask much pure basketball skill as I do at this point, they give Boston 12 extra fouls to clobber LeBron, Wade and Bosh. And I’m guessing they plan on using them.
Interestingly, the Lakers took a different approach to Miami.
Los Angeles said, “You know what, we’re going to be able to score points with Kobe, Gasol and Lamar Odom. We’ll dominate the boards as long as Andrew Bynum is healthy. What we need is one more guy on the perimeter to help Ron Artest defend LeBron and Wade. And if he’s crazy, that only makes it better.” Then they signed Matt Barnes.
The Celtics and Lakers remade their teams, with two completely different approaches, all with the hope of turning down the Heat. And you know what? I think it’s going to work.
I don’t know if Miami is going to go down after battered or bruised by Boston or because of the size and skill of the Lakers. But they are going down.
So who’ll finish on top?
6. Give Me The Los Angeles Lakers: As the 2011 NBA Champions.
(Love the article? Hate it? Disagree with something Aaron said? Let him know by commenting below or e-mailing him at mailto: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
Also for his continued take on all things sports, and for updates on all his articles, podcasts and giveaways, be sure to follow Aaron on Twitter @Aaron_Torres, Facebook.com/AaronTorresSports or by downloading the AaronTorres-Sports App for FREE for your iPhone or Android phones!)
